AHHME: A model for estimating the holistic cost-effectiveness of antimicrobial resistance interventions in food animal production.

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is considered a global priority for human health, and reducing antimicrobial use in food animals has been suggested as a key area for interventions aiming to reduce resistant infections in humans. In addition to the effect on human health, such interventions may have effects across food animal productivity, healthcare sector costs, and the broader macroeconomy, but these effects are rarely captured in the AMR health economic literature. Without being able to estimate these effects, it is difficult to understand the true cost-effectiveness of antimicrobial stewardship interventions in food animal production, or to correctly design and prioritise such interventions. We explore and demonstrate the potential use of a novel compartment-based mathematical model to estimate the holistic cost-effectiveness of AMR-related interventions in food animal production from a One Health perspective. The Agriculture Human Health Micro-Economic model (AHHME) uses Markov state transition models to model the movement of humans and food animals between health states. It assigns values to these health states utilising empiric approaches, from the perspectives of human health, food animal productivity, labour productivity and healthcare sector costs. Providing AHHME open-source code and interactive online modelling tools allow for capacity building in AMR intervention modelling. This model represents a useful framework for capturing the cost-effectiveness of AMR-related interventions in food animal production in a more holistic way: it can allow us to capture the often-overlooked benefits of such interventions in like terms while considering distributional concerns. It also demonstrates that methodological assumptions such as willingness-to-pay thresholds and discount rates can be just as important to health decision models as epidemiological parameters, and allows these assumptions to be altered. We provide example outputs, and encourage researchers and policymakers to use and adapt our code to explore, design, and prioritise AMR-related interventions in their own country contexts.

A Meta-Analysis to Estimate Prevalence of Resistance to Tetracyclines and Third Generation Cephalosporins in Enterobacteriaceae Isolated from Food Crops.

Application of human and animal waste to fields and water sources and on-farm antimicrobial usage are documented contributors to the occurrence of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) in agricultural domains. This meta-analysis aimed to determine the prevalence of resistance to tetracycline (TET) and third generation cephalosporins (3GC) in Enterobacteriaceae isolated from food crops. TET was selected in view of its wide use in agriculture, whereas 3GC were selected because of the public health concerns of reported resistance to these critically important antibiotics in the environment. Forty-two studies from all six world regions published between 2010 and 2022 met the eligibility criteria. A random effects model estimated that 4.63% (95% CI: 2.57%, 7.18%; p-value: <0.0001) and 3.75% (95%CI: 2.13%, 5.74%; p-value: <0.0001) of surveyed food crops harboured Enterobacteriaceae resistant to TET and 3GC, respectively. No significant differences were observed between pre- and post-harvest stages of the value chain. 3GC resistance prevalence estimates in food crops were highest for the African region (6.59%; 95% CI: 2.41%, 12.40%; p-value: <0.0001) and lowest for Europe (1.84%; 95% CI: 0.00%, 6.02%; p-value: <0.0001). Considering the rare use of 3GC in agriculture, these results support its inclusion for AMR surveillance in food crops. Integrating food crops into One Health AMR surveillance using harmonized sampling methods could confirm trends highlighted here.

Changing food systems and infectious disease risks in low-income and middle-income countries.

The emergence of COVID-19 has drawn the attention of health researchers sharply back to the role that food systems can play in generating human disease burden. But emerging pandemic threats are just one dimension of the complex relationship between agriculture and infectious disease, which is evolving rapidly, particularly in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) that are undergoing rapid food system transformation. We examine this changing relationship through four current disease issues. The first is that greater investment in irrigation to improve national food security raises risks of vector-borne disease, which we illustrate with the case of malaria and rice in Africa. The second is that the intensification of livestock production in LMICs brings risks of zoonotic diseases like cysticercosis, which need to be managed as consumer demand grows. The third is that the nutritional benefits of increasing supply of fresh vegetables, fruit, and animal-sourced foods in markets in LMICs pose new food-borne disease risks, which might undermine supply. The fourth issue is that the potential human health risks of antimicrobial resistance from agriculture are intensified by changing livestock production. For each disease issue, we explore how food system transition is creating unintentional infectious disease risks, and what solutions might exist for these problems. We show that successfully addressing all of these challenges requires a coordinated approach between public health and agricultural sectors, recognising the costs and benefits of disease-reducing interventions to both, and seeking win-win solutions that are most likely to attract broad policy support and uptake by food systems.

Quantifying the Relationship between Antibiotic Use in Food-Producing Animals and Antibiotic Resistance in Humans.

It is commonly asserted that agricultural production systems must use fewer antibiotics in food-producing animals in order to mitigate the global spread of antimicrobial resistance (AMR). In order to assess the cost-effectiveness of such interventions, especially given the potential trade-off with rural livelihoods, we must quantify more precisely the relationship between food-producing animal antimicrobial use and AMR in humans. Here, we outline and compare methods that can be used to estimate this relationship, calling on key literature in this area. Mechanistic mathematical models have the advantage of being rooted in epidemiological theory, but may struggle to capture relevant non-epidemiological covariates which have an uncertain relationship with human AMR. We advocate greater use of panel regression models which can incorporate these factors in a flexible way, capturing both shape and scale variation. We provide recommendations for future panel regression studies to follow in order to inform cost-effectiveness analyses of AMR containment interventions across the One Health spectrum, which will be key in the age of increasing AMR.

Quantitatively evaluating the cross-sectoral and One Health impact of interventions: A scoping review and case study of antimicrobial resistance.

BACKGROUND: Current frameworks evaluating One Health (OH) interventions focus on intervention-design and -implementation. Cross-sectoral impact evaluations are needed to more effectively tackle OH-issues, such as antimicrobial resistance (AMR). We aimed to describe quantitative evaluation methods for interventions related to OH and cross-sectoral issues, to propose an explicit approach for evaluating such interventions, and to apply this approach to AMR. METHODS: A scoping review was performed using WebofScience, EconLit, PubMed and gray literature. Quantitative evaluations of interventions that had an impact across two or more of the human, animal and environment sectors were included. Information on the interventions, methods and outcome measures found was narratively summarised. The information from this review informed the construction of a new approach to OH-related intervention evaluation, which then was applied to the field of AMR. RESULTS: The review included 90 studies: 73 individual evaluations (from 72 papers) and 18 reviews, with a range of statistical modelling (n = 13 studies), mathematical modelling (n = 53) and index-creation/preference-ranking (n = 14) methods discussed. The literature highlighted the need to (I) establish stakeholder objectives, (II) establish quantifiable outcomes that feed into those objectives, (III) establish agents and compartments that affect these outcomes and (IV) select appropriate methods (described in this review) accordingly. Based on this, an evaluation model for AMR was conceptualised; a decision-tree of intervention options, a compartmental-microeconomic model across sectors and a general-equilibrium (macroeconomic) model are linked. The outcomes of this multi-level model (including cost-utility and Gross Domestic Product impact) can then feed into multi-criteria-decision analyses that weigh respective impact estimates alongside other chosen outcome estimates (for example equity or uncertainty). CONCLUSION: In conclusion, stakeholder objectives are key in establishing which evaluation methods (and associated outcome measures) should be used for OH-related interventions. The stated multi-level approach also allows for sub-systems to be modelled in succession, where resources are constrained.

Integrating Agriculture and Health Research for Development: LCIRAH as an Interdisciplinary Programme to Address a Global Challenge.

The multiple burdens of persistent undernutrition and micronutrient deficiencies, along with the rapidly growing rates of overweight, obesity, and associated chronic diseases, are major challenges globally. The role of agriculture and the food system in meeting these challenges is very poorly understood. Achieving food security and addressing malnutrition in all its forms, a Sustainable Development Goal, requires an understanding of how changing food systems affect health outcomes and the development of new tools to design and evaluate interventions. An interinstitutional programme to address this interdisciplinary research challenge is described. Over the past seven years, the Leverhulme Centre for Integrative Research on Agriculture and Health has built a portfolio of successful and innovative research, trained a new cadre of interdisciplinary researchers in "Agri-Health," and built an international research community with a particular focus on strengthening research capacity in low- and middle-income countries. The evolution of this programme is described, and key factors contributing to its success are discussed that may be of general value in designing interdisciplinary research programmes directed at supporting global development goals.

The Rapid Degradation of Lambda-Cyhalothrin Makes Treated Vegetables Relatively Safe for Consumption.

Lambda-cyhalothrin (λ-cyhalothrin) is the most commonly used pyrethroid insecticide for vegetable farming in Benin. This insecticide is misused and overused by farmers, and hence may pose health hazards to consumers. We monitored λ-cyhalothrin residues in lettuce and cabbage from farms at the market gates in Cotonou and Parakou using high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) analysis techniques. These residues were also monitored on samples directly from farms (on-farm sampling) for 14 days post-treatment. Potential factors such as photolysis and hydrolysis involved in λ-cyhalothrin degradation were also screened. Results revealed that the level of λ-cyhalothrin residue concentrations in lettuce from Houeyiho decreased from 4.2 mg/kg on Day 1 to about 0.2 mg/kg on Day 7. On Day 9, analyzed lettuces were all λ-cyhalothrin free. In contrast, even 14 days after treatment of cabbage from Bawera (Parakou), we still recorded the presence of λ-cyhalothrin residues in analyzed samples. For samples from market gates, λ-cyhalothrin residues were found in lettuce from two markets out of the nine surveyed in Cotonou. Interestingly, none of these contaminated samples had residues above the maximum residue limit for lettuce (MRL = 0.5 mg/kg). Similarly, in Parakou, samples from all five surveyed vegetable markets were contaminated with λ-cyhalothrin residues at concentrations below the MRL for cabbage (MRL = 0.2 mg/kg). We conclude that λ-cyhalothrin residues in lettuce and cabbage from farms and markets in Parakou and Cotonou are within the MRL, and hence are relatively safe for consumption.

Can nutrition be promoted through agriculture-led food price policies? A systematic review.

OBJECTIVE: To systematically review the available evidence on whether national or international agricultural policies that directly affect the price of food influence the prevalence rates of undernutrition or nutrition-related chronic disease in children and adults. DESIGN: Systematic review. SETTING: Global. SEARCH STRATEGY: We systematically searched five databases for published literature (MEDLINE, EconLit, Agricola, AgEcon Search, Scopus) and systematically browsed other databases and relevant organisational websites for unpublished literature. Reference lists of included publications were hand-searched for additional relevant studies. We included studies that evaluated or simulated the effects of national or international food-price-related agricultural policies on nutrition outcomes reporting data collected after 1990 and published in English. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOMES: Prevalence rates of undernutrition (measured with anthropometry or clinical deficiencies) and overnutrition (obesity and nutrition-related chronic diseases including cancer, heart disease and diabetes). RESULTS: We identified a total of four relevant reports; two ex post evaluations and two ex ante simulations. A study from India reported on the undernutrition rates in children, and the other three studies from Egypt, the Netherlands and the USA reported on the nutrition-related chronic disease outcomes in adults. Two of the studies assessed the impact of policies that subsidised the price of agricultural outputs and two focused on public food distribution policies. The limited evidence base provided some support for the notion that agricultural policies that change the prices of foods at a national level can have an effect on population-level nutrition and health outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: A systematic review of the available literature suggests that there is a paucity of robust direct evidence on the impact of agricultural price policies on nutrition and health.

Understanding and managing zoonotic risk in the new livestock industries.

BACKGROUND: In many parts of the world, livestock production is undergoing a process of rapid intensification. The health implications of this development are uncertain. Intensification creates cheaper products, allowing more people to access animal-based foods. However, some practices associated with intensification may contribute to zoonotic disease emergence and spread: for example, the sustained use of antibiotics, concentration of animals in confined units, and long distances and frequent movement of livestock. OBJECTIVES: Here we present the diverse range of ecological, biological, and socioeconomic factors likely to enhance or reduce zoonotic risk, and identify ways in which a comprehensive risk analysis may be conducted by using an interdisciplinary approach. We also offer a conceptual framework to guide systematic research on this problem. DISCUSSION: We recommend that interdisciplinary work on zoonotic risk should take into account the complexity of risk environments, rather than limiting studies to simple linear causal relations between risk drivers and disease emergence and/or spread. In addition, interdisciplinary integration is needed at different levels of analysis, from the study of risk environments to the identification of policy options for risk management. CONCLUSION: Given rapid changes in livestock production systems and their potential health implications at the local and global level, the problem we analyze here is of great importance for environmental health and development. Although we offer a systematic interdisciplinary approach to understand and address these implications, we recognize that further research is needed to clarify methodological and practical questions arising from the integration of the natural and social sciences.

Linking agriculture and health in low- and middle-income countries: an interdisciplinary research agenda.

Recent global fluctuations in food prices and continuing environmental degradation highlight the future challenge of feeding a growing world population. However, current dialogues rarely address the relationship between agricultural changes and health. This relationship is traditionally associated with the role of food in nutrition and with food safety, and while these are key interactions, we show in this paper that the relationship is far more complex and interesting. Besides the direct effects of agriculture on population nutrition, agriculture also influences health through its impact on household incomes, economies and the environment. These effects are felt particularly in low- and middle-income countries, where dramatic changes are affecting the agriculture-health relationship, in particular the growth of nutrition-related chronic disease and the associated double burden of under- and over-nutrition. Greater understanding of the negative effects of agriculture on health is also needed. While lengthening food value chains make the chain of influence between agricultural policy, food consumption, nutrition and health more complex, there remain opportunities to improve health by changing agricultural systems. The first challenge in doing this, we suggest, is to improve our capacity to measure the impact of agricultural interventions on health outcomes, and vice versa.

Infectious diseases of animals and plants: an interdisciplinary approach.

Animal and plant diseases pose a serious and continuing threat to food security, food safety, national economies, biodiversity and the rural environment. New challenges, including climate change, regulatory developments, changes in the geographical concentration and size of livestock holdings, and increasing trade make this an appropriate time to assess the state of knowledge about the impact that diseases have and the ways in which they are managed and controlled. In this paper, the case is explored for an interdisciplinary approach to studying the management of infectious animal and plant diseases. Reframing the key issues through incorporating both social and natural science research can provide a holistic understanding of disease and increase the policy relevance and impact of research. Finally, in setting out the papers in this Theme Issue, a picture of current and future animal and plant disease threats is presented.

Feeding the world healthily: the challenge of measuring the effects of agriculture on health.

Agricultural production, food systems and population health are intimately linked. While there is a strong evidence base to inform our knowledge of what constitutes a healthy human diet, we know little about actual food production or consumption in many populations and how developments in the food and agricultural system will affect dietary intake patterns and health. The paucity of information on food production and consumption is arguably most acute in low- and middle-income countries, where it is most urgently needed to monitor levels of under-nutrition, the health impacts of rapid dietary transition and the increasing 'double burden' of nutrition-related disease. Food availability statistics based on food commodity production data are currently widely used as a proxy measure of national-level food consumption, but using data from the UK and Mexico we highlight the potential pitfalls of this approach. Despite limited resources for data collection, better systems of measurement are possible. Important drivers to improve collection systems may include efforts to meet international development goals and partnership with the private sector. A clearer understanding of the links between the agriculture and food system and population health will ensure that health becomes a critical driver of agricultural change.

Public health benefits of strategies to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions: food and agriculture.

Agricultural food production and agriculturally-related change in land use substantially contribute to greenhouse-gas emissions worldwide. Four-fifths of agricultural emissions arise from the livestock sector. Although livestock products are a source of some essential nutrients, they provide large amounts of saturated fat, which is a known risk factor for cardiovascular disease. We considered potential strategies for the agricultural sector to meet the target recommended by the UK Committee on Climate Change to reduce UK emissions from the concentrations recorded in 1990 by 80% by 2050, which would require a 50% reduction by 2030. With use of the UK as a case study, we identified that a combination of agricultural technological improvements and a 30% reduction in livestock production would be needed to meet this target; in the absence of good emissions data from Brazil, we assumed for illustrative purposes that the required reductions would be the same for our second case study in São Paulo city. We then used these data to model the potential benefits of reduced consumption of livestock products on the burden of ischaemic heart disease: disease burden would decrease by about 15% in the UK (equivalent to 2850 disability-adjusted life-years [DALYs] per million population in 1 year) and 16% in São Paulo city (equivalent to 2180 DALYs per million population in 1 year). Although likely to yield benefits to health, such a strategy will probably encounter cultural, political, and commercial resistance, and face technical challenges. Coordinated intersectoral action is needed across agricultural, nutritional, public health, and climate change communities worldwide to provide affordable, healthy, low-emission diets for all societies.